Friday 29th November
The pound (GBP) showed limited movement on Friday, as traders assessed the Bank of England’s (BoE) most recent Financial Stability Report. The BoE noted that, despite increasing global economic risks, UK household finances have remained relatively stable.
The euro (EUR) held steady as the week drew to a close, following the release of the Eurozone’s latest consumer price index. Preliminary figures for November indicated a rise in inflation to a four-month high. However, analysts believed this would not deter the European Central Bank (ECB) from considering an interest rate cut in the upcoming month.
The US dollar (USD) experienced a quiet session on Friday, lacking direction as market activity was muted by holiday trading. The currency’s appeal was further diminished by a fall in US Treasury yields, limiting any potential support for the ‘greenback.’
Thursday 28th November
The pound (GBP) remained relatively flat yesterday, with a lack of significant UK data keeping the currency in check. GBP traders appeared indifferent to a slight dip in UK consumer confidence, as reported by the British Retail Consortium (BRC).
The euro (EUR) experienced modest declines despite an unexpected improvement in Eurozone consumer sentiment for November. A smaller-than-expected rise in German inflation added downward pressure on the euro, though overall movement was limited as investors awaited this morning’s Eurozone inflation figures.
The US dollar (USD) traded within a narrow range yesterday, with US markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. The shifting market sentiment also prevented the safe-haven currency from gaining clear traction.
Wednesday 27th November
The pound (GBP) strengthened on Wednesday, driven by comments from Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli. In an interview with the Financial Times, Lombardelli highlighted ongoing inflationary pressures within the service sector, dampening expectations for a rate cut from the BoE in December.
The euro (EUR) edged higher yesterday following remarks by European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Isabel Schnabel, who stated that there is only “limited room for further rate cuts.” This outlook, coupled with the euro’s negative correlation with a weaker US dollar (USD), supported the single currency.
The US dollar (USD) saw a decline on Wednesday as positive market sentiment reduced demand for the safe-haven currency. Nonetheless, losses were capped by the release of October’s core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, which recorded its first increase in three months.
Tuesday 26th November
The pound (GBP) showed no clear trend as market volatility caused the currency to fluctuate. Investors largely ignored a larger-than-expected decline in retail sales volumes, as reported by the Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) latest distributive trades survey.
The euro (EUR) faced uncertainty as well, weakened by its negative correlation with the volatile US dollar (USD). Despite this, the euro managed to shrug off concerns related to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, even as the Kremlin warned of retaliation for Ukrainian strikes on Russian soil using US-made missiles.
The US dollar experienced turbulent trading yesterday, following an unexpected tariff announcement by Donald Trump on social media. USD fluctuated as markets reacted to the surprise news, but trading eventually stabilised.
Monday 25th November
The pound (GBP) had a mixed start to the week, despite comments from Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli that leaned hawkish. While Lombardelli noted it was “too early to declare victory on inflation,” the currency struggled to gain traction, hindered by ongoing concerns over the state of the UK economy.
The euro (EUR) began the week on a stronger footing after Donald Trump’s selection of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary was announced over the weekend. This news helped ease market concerns over potential tariffs on the Eurozone. Analysts viewed Bessent’s nomination as an indication that the new US administration might adopt a more lenient stance on EU trade taxes than initially anticipated.
The US dollar (USD) lost ground on Monday, as markets reacted positively to Trump’s pick of Bessent, boosting sentiment. The nomination also triggered a slight dip in US inflation expectations, leading investors to increase their expectations for further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Friday 22nd November
The pound (GBP) came under significant pressure on Friday after British retail sales fell by 0.7% in October, far worse than the expected decline of 0.3%. Additionally, the UK’s preliminary November PMIs underperformed, with service sector activity unexpectedly flatlining this month.
The euro (EUR) also experienced a sharp decline on Friday, as both Eurozone manufacturing and services PMIs pointed to contraction. Furthermore, Germany’s final GDP for Q3 was revised downwards, from 0.2% to 0.1%.
The US dollar (USD) ended the week on a high note, benefiting from a risk-averse sentiment that drove investors to the safe-haven currency. A better-than-expected US services PMI also provided a boost to the dollar, with the preliminary November reading rising from 55 to 57.
Thursday 21st November
The pound (GBP) weakened against its stronger peers yesterday after UK public borrowing exceeded expectations. Government borrowing surged to £17.4bn in October, the second-highest on record for the month, surpassing the forecasted £12.3bn. This raised concerns over the health of the UK’s public finances.
The euro (EUR) faced difficulties yesterday as persistent concerns about the Russia-Ukraine conflict continued to weigh on the currency. However, a pullback in the US dollar (USD) in the afternoon helped provide some support for the euro, thanks to their strong negative correlation.
The US dollar experienced fluctuations yesterday as market sentiment shifted, leaving the safe-haven currency without a clear direction. A slight drop in US Treasury yields added downward pressure, causing the dollar to weaken against several of its rivals.
Wednesday 20th November
The pound (GBP) gained strength on Wednesday following an unexpected jump in the UK’s consumer price index. The sharper-than-expected rise in inflation lifted Sterling, as it reduced market expectations for the Bank of England (BoE) to cut interest rates in December.
The euro (EUR) faced challenges on Wednesday as growing tensions between Russia and Ukraine unsettled European investors. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) Financial Stability Review added further pressure, warning that the Eurozone’s economic growth remains at risk.
The US dollar (USD) saw a rally on Wednesday, benefiting from its safe-haven appeal as investors sought shelter from riskier assets. The currency also received additional support as US Treasury yields rose, ahead of upcoming speeches by Federal Reserve policymakers.
Tuesday 19th November
The pound (GBP) faced a setback yesterday as concerns over the Russia-Ukraine war weighed heavily on the UK currency. Comments from some Bank of England (BoE) officials also contributed to Sterling’s decline. The bank warned of potential job losses in the coming months, while one policymaker suggested that the BoE might cut interest rates more quickly than markets are anticipating.
The euro (EUR) also dropped on Tuesday as tensions between Russia and the West intensified, with the Kremlin warning of a possible nuclear response if Ukraine were to use US weapons against Russian targets. However, later in the session, the euro recovered some ground against its rivals, bolstered by a pullback in the US dollar (USD), with which it has an inverse relationship.
The US dollar initially strengthened yesterday as the risk-averse market sentiment drove investors toward the safe-haven currency. However, the ‘greenback’ failed to maintain its momentum and weakened later in the evening, following a drop in US Treasury yields.
Monday 18th November
The pound (GBP) struggled to gain momentum on Monday amid fresh warnings about the potential economic impact of Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs. The CEBR think tank cautioned that the UK economy could shrink by nearly 1% if Trump follows through with his plan to impose a 20% tariff on all imports.
The euro (EUR) saw gains on Monday as the risk-averse market sentiment boosted its appeal to investors. The euro also benefited from its negative correlation with the US dollar (USD), as the dollar faced headwinds.
The US dollar faced difficulty in gaining support at the start of the week, with a lack of significant US economic data leaving the currency vulnerable. The continued unwinding of the ‘Trump trade’ put further pressure on the USD, with some investors opting to take profits from recent gains.
Friday 15th November
The pound (GBP) faced significant pressure on Friday after the release of the UK’s latest GDP data. Preliminary estimates for the third quarter revealed growth had slowed sharply from 0.5% to a modest 0.1%, attributed to uncertainty surrounding the Labour government’s inaugural budget.
The euro (EUR) gained ground as last week came to a close, benefiting from a weakening US dollar (USD). A pullback in the dollar, combined with upwardly revised Eurozone growth projections from the European Commission, allowed the euro to recover some of its earlier losses.
The US dollar lost momentum toward the end of the week as the recent rally sparked by Trump’s policies appeared to lose traction, prompting some USD investors to take profits. However, the currency’s decline was cushioned by stronger-than-expected US retail sales figures, which showed October sales growth exceeding forecasts, alongside upward revisions for September.
Thursday 14th November
The pound (GBP) faced downward pressure yesterday as concerns grew over the potential impact of Donald Trump’s proposed trade tariffs on the UK economy. With no significant domestic data releases to provide support, Sterling struggled to gain momentum.
The euro (EUR) also faced headwinds following Trump’s election win, with fears that tariffs might spark a damaging trade conflict between the EU and the US. Adding to the euro’s challenges, Eurozone industrial production posted a steeper decline than anticipated. However, debate among European Central Bank (ECB) officials over the pace of rate cuts offered some support to the single currency.
The US dollar (USD) extended its recent gains after confirmation that the Republican Party had secured a majority in the House of Representatives. With the GOP now holding control over Congress, expectations rose that President-Elect Donald Trump’s policies could drive inflation higher, potentially reducing the need for aggressive rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Wednesday 13th November
The pound (GBP) saw modest gains on Wednesday, bolstered by remarks from Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Catherine Mann. Mann highlighted the risk of rising inflation in the UK and emphasised the need to maintain interest rates at current levels for an extended period.
The euro (EUR) struggled to gain traction, weighed down by persistent concerns over potential US trade policies under Donald Trump. Fears of a trade conflict between the US and the EU have raised alarm among EUR investors, as such tensions could significantly harm the Eurozone economy and pressure the European Central Bank (ECB) to implement further rate cuts.
The US dollar (USD) strengthened during Wednesday’s session following hawkish comments from Federal Reserve official Lorie Logan. After data revealed US inflation rose to a three-month high of 2.6% in October, Logan suggested that market expectations for a December rate cut might be overly optimistic, lending support to the dollar.
Tuesday 12th November
The pound (GBP) struggled early after the UK unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped from 4% to 4.3%, surpassing the forecast of 4.1%. Stronger-than-anticipated wage growth helped limit the pound’s losses, but the currency still ended the session on a weaker note.
The euro (EUR) faced pressure as Germany’s latest economic sentiment index recorded a sharper decline than anticipated. Confidence in Europe’s largest economy weakened further this month, driven by concerns over potential US tariffs on European goods and uncertainty following the collapse of Germany’s coalition government.
The US dollar (USD) gained ground as optimism surrounding “Trump trade” continued to fuel demand for the currency. With Republicans likely to secure control of Congress, expectations grew that President-Elect Donald Trump would have the ability to implement tax cuts and tariffs. These policies are seen as likely to drive inflation higher, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to ease up on planned interest rate cuts.
Monday 11th November
The pound (GBP) started the week under pressure, weighed down by concerns over the potential impact of Donald Trump’s economic policies on UK growth. While Trump’s proposed tariffs are expected to dampen UK GDP in the long term, speculation about a possible “preferential” trade deal with the UK offered a glimmer of optimism.
The euro (EUR) faltered on Monday as persistent worries over the prospect of US tariffs under Trump’s leadership continued to drag on the currency. Adding to the euro’s woes was heightened political uncertainty in Germany after last week’s collapse of the coalition government.
The US dollar (USD) gained strength during Monday’s session as expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate cuts waned. Investors anticipated that a Republican-controlled Congress could smooth the path for Trump’s tariffs and tax initiatives, boosting inflationary pressures. However, lighter trading volumes, due to the Veterans Day holiday in the US, limited the dollar’s upward momentum.
Friday 8th November
The pound (GBP) remained relatively flat as investors continued to assess the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate decision from Thursday. Sterling showed little reaction to remarks by BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill, who emphasised the need for the bank to concentrate on long-term inflationary trends.
The euro (EUR) faced a decline following the collapse of Germany’s coalition government earlier in the week, raising concerns about the future direction of the Eurozone’s largest economy. The euro’s losses were further exacerbated by its negative correlation with the US dollar (USD).
The US dollar strengthened towards the end of the week, driven by risk-off sentiment as investors flocked to the safe-haven currency. The upside momentum for the dollar was bolstered by the latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, which showed US consumer morale reached its highest level in six months in November.
Thursday 7th November
The pound (GBP) saw a notable rise following the Bank of England’s (BoE) latest interest rate decision. Although the BoE implemented its second rate cut of the year, the move was largely anticipated by the market. Sterling sentiment was buoyed by the bank’s slightly hawkish forward guidance.
The euro (EUR) strengthened, benefiting from its inverse relationship with the US dollar (USD). However, the gains were tempered by mixed economic data from the Eurozone. While retail sales in the region exceeded expectations, a larger-than-expected drop in German industrial production sparked concerns among investors.
The US dollar remained relatively subdued for much of trading, as profit-taking took hold following its surge to multi-month highs after Donald Trump’s election win. The USD stabilised towards the end of the session as the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate cut, though it refrained from providing strong signals about additional rate cuts in December.
Wednesday 6th November
The pound (GBP) fell sharply following Donald Trump’s election win, as concerns over the UK’s economic future mounted. Analysts suggest that a Trump presidency could hinder UK growth and exacerbate inflation, potentially prolonging the ongoing cost-of-living crisis.
The euro (EUR) experienced a significant decline, undermined by its negative correlation with the rising US dollar (USD). Additionally, worries that Trump’s proposed tariffs on European exports could severely impact the Eurozone economy contributed to the euro’s drop.
The US dollar surged, fueled by Trump’s election victory, which sparked optimism for the ‘greenback’. Markets anticipate that his pro-business, low-tax policies could stimulate US growth and push inflation higher in the short term, leading the Federal Reserve to potentially maintain elevated interest rates for an extended period.
Tuesday 5th November
The pound (GBP) showed a mixed performance as markets largely brushed aside the upward revision to the UK’s final services PMI. With the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision on the horizon, GBP investors were hesitant to take strong positions on the currency.
The euro (EUR) moved sideways, lacking any significant direction due to a lack of impactful Eurozone data. A general risk-on sentiment weighed on the traditionally safer single currency, although EUR found some support from its negative correlation with the US dollar (USD).
The US dollar weakened as uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election dampened its appeal in a risk-on environment. Despite a stronger-than-expected US services PMI in the afternoon, the ‘greenback’ failed to gain traction, with the PMI data revealing easing price pressures, fueling expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
Monday 4th November
The pound (GBP) remained range-bound throughout the session as the market continued to absorb the effects of last week’s budget announcement. Sterling saw little movement as investors turned their attention to the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate decision later this week.
The euro (EUR) saw broad gains on Monday, supported by its negative correlation with the US dollar (USD). However, these advances were capped by the release of the latest Eurozone manufacturing PMI. While the figure was slightly revised upwards, it still pointed to significant contraction in the bloc’s factory sector last month.
The US dollar had a weak start to the week following a poll that indicated Kamala Harris had overtaken Donald Trump in the race for the US Presidency. A Trump win is generally seen as favourable for the dollar, as his economic policies are perceived as inflationary, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period.
Currency Ranges for the month:
GBP/USD: Low: 1.25104 High: 1.30416
GBP/EUR: Low: 1.15053 High: 1.2093
EUR/USD: Low: 1.03968 High: 1.12006